@GossiTheDog distributed enron

@GossiTheDog NVIDIA being profitable is a given, even if you deleted all their AI hardware the gaming parts alone are a multibillion dollar business. But that business wouldn't be worth $4.5T

@GossiTheDog looks like a bunch of bubbles

@GossiTheDog @grumpybozo I feel like this could also be a graph showing inbreeding.

@GossiTheDog I did some rudimentary analysis and came to about 25-35% of Q3 25 revenue being attributable to these circular deals. That's not small potatoes by any means, but revenue was up 65% YoY.

In other words, they would still be profitable even without the circular deals.

The real danger is that doing this stuff creates unrealistic and unsustainable expectations, and you can't survive indefinitely on amphetamines. The comedown will not be pretty.

Profitability isn't really the issue with bubbles. It's unrealistic expectations.

@GossiTheDog like this right

@GossiTheDog the people selling the shovels to AI startups are making cash hand over fist no one could ever have predicted this!

@GossiTheDog they did a lot of stock buybacks, china is going to kick their ass and it will all fall apart, that is their (and our) existential threat but people who firmly believe this should put their money where their mouth is or shut the hell up - basically accurate

@GossiTheDog This seems like it will become a slide in a courtroom defense easel soon.

@GossiTheDog In turn of net sums, were does the flow ? It gotta to come from somewhere right ?

@GossiTheDog since Nvidia is actually making something and is diversified beyond AI, I would think they will be a lagging indicator on whether the bubble has popped

@GossiTheDog

There is no AI bubble? LOL. Nvidia is the AI bubble.

@GossiTheDog So what you’re showing us is that, unsurprisingly, AI is a massive circle jerk.

@GossiTheDog It’s like the musical chairs, everything looks good until the music stop and you have to reconciliate the number or person with the number of chairs…

@GossiTheDog 🔃

@GossiTheDog #Alt4You #AltText a graph showing several circles (or bubbles) with the names of companies involved in the AI business, like Microsoft, OpenAI and many others, their projects/AI products and their (e)valuation amounts. Nvidia stands in the middle, the biggest circle (bubble) of them all.

@GossiTheDog in biology this is called inbreeding

@GossiTheDog
Well, at least AMD and Nvidia build and sell something real...

@GossiTheDog I saw the AI bubble being compared to the gold rush. Everyone wanted to earn money, but hardly anyone did. The one who earned the most was the one selling pick axes, and that is Nvidia.

@GossiTheDog It's something I have been wondering for many years now. Why doesn't any company just make another company and circle trade with it. It seems like a trivial way to generate arbitrary turnovers.

@GossiTheDog Wonder who gets caught holding the empty bag.

@GossiTheDog wonder what NVIDIA is going to do with all those GPUs once the vaporware goes "pop!"

@GossiTheDog is there a Monte Carlo simulation model for Three Card Monte?